Drop Zone: Drop Score Week 1 Preview

Welcome to the Drop Zone (aka DZ), the central hub for all things Drop Score.  By now, I hope you've read the Rules and have signed up for a Drvn.Golf account.  And if you're like so many others, you're likely wondering who the heck to pick for the Southern Highlands and Cabo Collegiate tournaments in Week 1.

Quite honestly, I stared at the list of names in these Week 1 dropdown menu's and can talk myself into an handful of players playing well and scoring for their respective team.  But then again, it only takes one mediocre round out of three and/or teammates on a heater before you're knocked out.  The blog post is meant to provide some analytic insights and names to look out for heading into this weekend.  Ultimately, I'll be documenting my thought process and making my Drop Score picks for all to see.

In thinking about potential picks, I really broke down the field using three key categories.

1. Year-to-Date Performance - how often is the player counting for their team when they are in the starting line-up? What kind of scores are they shooting? And how are those scores relative to his teammates?  With the last point in mind, I created a metric called Strokes Gained on Drop (SG Drop) which is the average number of strokes that player is away from being the dropped score if they counted or number of strokes away from being a counting score if they were dropped.
2. Last Year's Tournament - a quick survey of any returning player's from last year's Top 10
3. Recent Form - lots of ways to look at this but one thing I have off the shelf is WAGR Momentum, which is how much a player's WAGR score has changed between today and four weeks ago.  This would obviously be a function of any tournament performances added in the last four weeks but also an indication of how the player's last year of performance is relative to the previous year of event's slowly rolling off. I'll cross reference any top 125 WAGR players who are in the Top 25 of this Momentum metric with the teams in the tournament field, and then highlight any recent top finishes by those players.

Southern Highlands Collegiate
March 2-4, 2025
Southern Highlands Country Club - Las Vegas, NV
Host School: UNLV

The Southern Highlands Collegiate boasts one of the strongest fields in the spring. In the past, the individual winner has received a sponsor's exemption into the Shriners PGA Tour event. However, the Las Vegas tour stop is no longer on the Tour schedule for2025 after a 42-year run.  Last year, Ian Gilligan of Florida won the individual collegiate title and then finished T16 in the Shriners (spoiler alert: he's going to be my pick here).

Year-to-Date Performance

Among the teams in the field, here are players that a) have had at least 12 round starting for their teams and b) have had less than 2 scores dropped this season.  Seven players (including Gilligan) have a 100% Counting Rate so far this year and another 17 players have only one dropped score this season.

Last Year

Five players from last year's Top 10 are likely back with their team this season:

• Ian Gilligan, Florida (1st, 67-71-70)
• Jase Summy, Oklahoma (2nd, 71-72-66)
• Brendan Valdes, Auburn (3rd, 72-71-67)
• Jackson Koivun, Auburn (T4, 70-70-71) - NOTE: Koivun not in the field due to exemption into Arnold Palmer Invitational next week
• Drew Goodman, Oklahoma (T6, 70-70-72)
• Shea Lague, San Diego State (T9th, 70-72-72)

Recent Form

The top 5 Momentum Watch players likely in the field are:

1. Ian Gilligan, Florida (most recent tournament: won Gators Invitational)
2. Justin Hastings, San Diego State (13th at Mexico Open)
3. Benjamin Reuter, Georgia Tech (4th at Watersound Invitational)
4. Jack Turner, Florida (6th at Gators Invitational)
5. Carson Bacha, Auburn (3rd at Amer Ari Invitational)

My Pick: Ian Gilligan, Florida
Backup Pick: Justin Hastings, San Diego State

‍

Cabo Collegiate
March 2-4, 2025
Twin Dolphin Club - Las Vegas, NV
Host School: Arkansas

The Cabo Collegiate is another completely loaded field.  This tournament seems to be extremely popular with the coaches in attendance.  All 14 teams in the field this year are returning from last year.  Michael Thorbjornsen won last year individually and earned an exemption into the World Wide Technology tournament (which ultimately he didn't need thanks to his number one spot in PGA Tour University).  Arizona State won the team title.

Year-to-Date Performance

I count 8 players without a drop so far this year and another 17 with only one dropped score. Note Luke Clanton is playing the Cognizant Classic PGA Tour event this week and likely not in the Cabo field for Florida State.

Last Year

Three players from last year's Top 10 are likely back with their team this season:

• Michael La Sasso (2nd, 72-68-64)
• Preston Summerhays, Arizona State (3rd, 70-68-67)
• Jack Bigham, Florida State (T10, 73-69-68)

Recent Form

The top 5 Momentum Watch players likely in the field are:

1. Wells Williams, Vanderbilt (most recent tournament: 22nd Watersound Invitational)
2. Cohen Trolio, Ole Miss (5th at Puerto Rico Classic)
3. Ethan Fang, Oklahoma State (10th at Gators Invitational)
4. Charles DeLong, Texas Tech (4th at The Prestige)
5. Peer Wernicke, Arizona State (16th at Amer Ari Invitational)

My Pick: Wells Williams, Vanderbilt
Backup Pick: Lance Simpson, Tennessee

‍

Note: if you want to revise your pick as a result of this thorough DZ analysis, simply submit the form again.

‍

‍